BIGinsight™ November Executive Briefing

The Consumer Intentions & Actions® Survey monitors over 8,000 consumers each month providing unique insights & identifying opportunities in a fragmented and transitory marketplace.

Talking Points:
- Confidence improves in November, but remains weak headed into Holiday ‘11
- Practicality, Focus on Needs drop this month as the holiday shopping season gears up
- One in three still expecting “more” layoffs over next six months
- Two in five “worse off” financially compared to a year ago
- Retailing Renaissance? A closer look at Layaway
- New #1 in Women’s Clothing: Kohl’s
- Payless puts the pressure on Walmart in Shoes
- 90 Day Outlook: Things are looking up for retailers
- What’s Hot…Giving Thanks or Black Friday? Or, giving thanks for Black Friday?

Consumers elected a slightly more optimistic economic outlook in November…23.7% are now very confident/confident in chances for a strong economy, up nearly two points from October (22.0%). However, this month’s “improvement” is overshadowed by the fact that this is the lowest November confidence reading since Nov-08 (22.3%). And to add insult to injury, sentiment was more than double what it is currently back in the Nov-06 heyday (50.3%).

Confidence

It doesn’t look like the Occupy Wall Street demonstration in NYC is elevating concerns for political and national security issues…this month, about one in five (19.6%) say they continue to worry, down more than two points from October (21.9%) and one point from Nov-10 (20.8%).

Are consumers finally gearing up for holiday shopping? This month, just under half (45.2%) say they’ve become more practical and realistic in their purchasing, down five points from a month ago (50.8%) and on par with Nov-10 (45.0%).

Dear Santa: Please don’t send me socks AGAIN this year…it appears that jolly old St. Nick will be able to please more gift recipients this year, as those focused on necessities declines in November as well…this month, just over half (52.6%) say they zero in on just what they need when at the store, lowering more than five points from October (58.1%) and trending below levels seen heading into the past three holiday shopping seasons.

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With U.S. unemployment remaining high at 9.0%, consumers continue to hold little hope for improvement in the labor market…in November, about a third (32.1%) say they are expecting “more” layoffs within the next six months, down from 35.1% in October, but still higher than Nov-10 (26.7%). The majority of consumers (52.7%) are anticipating that layoff levels will remain the “same,” relatively flat from October (51.8%) as well as Nov-10 (52.6%). Finally, just 15.3% are holding hope for “fewer” layoffs, up slightly from October (13.1%), but five points below Nov-10 (20.7%).

While consumers’ outlook for the overall employment situation are gloomy, personal concerns about becoming laid off remain low…just 3.3% (of those fortunate enough not to have been laid off already) say they worry about being handed the pink slip, flat from last month (3.4%) and dipping slightly from last year (3.8%). Back in Nov-08, this figure (8.2%) was more than double the current rate, but a lot of jobs have been lost since then (read: when you don’t have a job, you don’t worry about losing your job...)

Make way for holiday shopping…consumers have eased their intent to decrease overall spending in November (30.6%) compared to last month (35.5%). It doesn’t appear that consumers will be prone to overspending, though, given that plans to pay down debt remain at the forefront and haven’t waivered from this month (32.4%) to last (32.9%). Additionally, one in four (25.4%) plans to increase savings, while one-fifth (20.6%) is paying with cash more often.

In addition to the economic woes and the high unemployment rate, why else aren’t we anticipating a blockbuster shopping season this year? Two in five consumers (38.4%) say they are “worse off” financially compared to a year ago. Nearly half (46.7%) say they feel the same about their financial standing, while only 14.9% indicate they are “better off.”

While gas prices have been driven out of the headlines, average prices in the mid $3/gal range are still affecting purchase plans…among the 75.1% of consumers whose budgets are being pinched at the pumps, two in five (40.6%) are simply driving less, while about a third are reducing dining out (36.2%), decreasing vacation/travel (34.4%), and spending less on clothing (31.1%). Important note: all of these figures are elevated from Nov-10.

Drivers are bracing for higher gas prices this month compared to last…almost half (45.9%) believe the cost of fueling up will rise by month’s end (v. 32.9% in October), while nearly as many (45.5%) think prices will remain the same. Fewer than one in ten (8.6%) are hoping for a price decrease, a figure that dropped 50%+ in the past month (20.5%). The pump price prediction for the end of November is $3.61/gal, slightly higher than what was expected at the close of October ($3.53/gal).

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