BIGinsight™ January Executive Briefing

The Consumer Intentions & Actions® Survey monitors over 8,000 consumers each month providing unique insights & identifying opportunities in a fragmented and transitory marketplace.

Talking Points:
- The New Year didn’t begin with a bang, according to consumers
- Just one in three predict full economic recovery, down from Jan-11, Jan-10
- Blame it on the holiday spending hangover…practicality, focus on needs UP
- More than a third plan to decrease overall spending, up 20% from December
- Walmart is back in the driver’s seat in Women’s Clothing
- Will the Express Scripts debacle end Walgreens Prescription Drug domination?
- Consumer Migration: Prescription Drugs
- 90 Day Outlook: Looks like consumers are in for a little spending hibernation
- What’s Hot…does American craftsmanship score more points than the Super Bowl?

It doesn’t look like the New Year began with a bang, at least according to consumers…in January, fewer than a third (30.4%) stated they were very confident/confident in chances for a strong economy. While this is up three points from December (27.0%), sentiment this month is lower than what was recorded at the start of 2011 (32.2% in Jan-11).

Furthering the thought that consumers aren’t quite as optimistic as they were a year ago is the fact that fewer see a full economic rebound in our future…this month, one in three (32.3%) was positive that the economy would eventually recover to its pre-recession glory, declining from the percentage who declared the same back in Jan-11 (35.1%) and Jan-10 (40.8%). More than a third (33.8%) maintains a negative stance on the outlook for the economy re: recovery, while about as many (33.9%) just aren’t sure.

Think this data is interesting? Take a look at the differences in economic optimism among Gen Y, Gen X, Boomers, and Silents in the latest installment of Generation Gap, over at the BIG Consumer Blog.

When it comes to how the recession will impact lifestyles in the longer term, consumers are most apt to try to stick to a budget (48.7%), up two points from a year ago (46.9%). Considering purchases more carefully (48.0%), being more price conscious when buying food and clothing (47.4%), and spending less dining out (43.2%) also continue at the top of the list of changes over the next five years:

Lifestyle Changes

With the GOP primaries underway, it’s sure to be an interesting year politically speaking, and consumers seem OK with that [at least until the campaign ads hit the airwaves in full force]…this month, fewer than one in five (19.0%) say they’re worrying more about political/national security issues, flat from December and up just over a point from Jan-11 (17.7%).

With holiday bills rolling in, consumers seem to be suffering from spending headaches as practicality is on the rise in January…this month, nearly one in two (47.8%) say they’ve become more pragmatic in their purchasing, up a point from last month (46.9%) as well as last year (46.8%).

Headaches turn into hangovers as far as focus on needs over wants is concerned…here, nearly three in five (57.5%) report they are zeroing in on just the necessities when at the store, rising more than five points from December (52.1%) and remaining elevated from a year ago (55.2%) as well.

[Back to Top]

While the unemployment rate “dropped” to 8.5% in December, it looks like someone forgot to tell consumers that this was supposed to be good news…this month, more than a quarter (27.0%) contend that layoff levels will rise over the next six months, up from 24.0% in Jan-11 (when U.S. unemployment was a whopping 9.4%). The majority of consumers (51.0%) are anticipating more of the “same,” down slightly from last year (52.7%), while one in five (21.9%) is optimistic for fewer layoffs, down more than a point from 365 days ago (23.3%).

Because someone other than Santa has got to pay for the pile of presents under the tree, consumers are resolute in January to rein in spending and cut down on debt in the New Year…this month, more than a third (35.5%) are vowing to decrease overall spending, growing nearly 20% from last month (29.9%). Nearly as many plan to pay down debt (35.3%), also on the rise from Dec-11 (31.8%)…intent to increase savings (29.3%) as well as pay with cash more often (22.6%) are also up from 30 days ago.

With gas prices remaining elevated compared to a year ago, more consumers are feeling the pinch at the pump…among the now 73.1% affected by fluctuating fuel costs, two in five (40.5%) plan to cope by driving less, though intent here has lowered from 43.0% in Jan-11 [gotta get out to see and be seen, right?]. Those offsetting fueling expenses by reducing dining out (34.6%), decreasing vacation travel (33.0%), spending less on clothing (28.4%), and delaying a major purchase (21.0%) have increased in number over the past 365 days.

And, with very few drivers (5.5%) optimistic for a decline in pump prices by the end of the month, don’t expect an early Spring spending frenzy…most (61.3%) believe the cost of fueling up will be driven up by the close of January, while one-third (33.2%) feels they will stay about the same. Drivers are anticipating an average pump price of $3.58/gal by the end of the month, on par with their year-end prediction for 2011 ($3.54/gal).