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The Consumer Intentions & Actions®
Survey monitors over 8,000 consumers each month providing unique
insights & identifying opportunities in a fragmented and transitory
marketplace.
Talking Points:
- Feeling the spirit of the season, confidence is up three points from November
- Did the Black Friday blowout lead more consumers to practicality in December?
- Outlook improves for the job market in 2012
- Consumers become more likely to decrease overall spending, increase savings this month
- Sobering statistic: Two in five aren’t saving enough for future
- Smart shopping strategies prevail as gas prices continue to impact budgets
- Kohl’s ekes out a win again in Women’s Clothing
- Consumer Migration: Children’s Toys
- The forecast is merry and bright for the 90 Day Outlook
- What’s Hot? Are the Kardashians kooked?
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It appears that consumers are feeling the spirit of the season, as confidence is on the rise in December…27.0% say they are confident/very confident in chances for a strong economy, up three points from last month (23.7%) and on par with Dec-10 (27.3%). While this month’s reading is far from “recovered,” this is a much-welcomed improvement from the past four months spent in the low 20% range.
With all remaining relatively quiet on the homefront, concern for political and national security issues declines…this month, one in five (19.0%) continues to worry, down from 19.6% in November as well as 19.7% one year ago.
After a blowout Black Friday, it appears that some shoppers are reverting to pragmatic spending positions…in December, almost half (46.9%) say they’ve become more practical in their purchasing, up almost two points from last month (45.2%) and trending slightly ahead of Dec-10 (45.8%).
Merry Christmas to me, indeed….while the majority of shoppers (52.1%) continue to focus on just the necessities when spending this month, this figure had declined marginally from November (52.6%) as well as Dec-10 (52.7%).
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With the U.S. unemployment rate declining to the lowest rate in more than two years, consumers seem a little more hopeful for the job outlook in 2012…this month, just over one in four (28.9%) thinks there will be “more” layoffs over the next six months, lowering from 32.1% last month. The majority (54.0%) believes that layoff levels will remain the same (up slightly from 52.7% in Nov-11), while nearly one in five (17.1%) is optimistic for “fewer,” up two points from 30 days ago (15.3%).
Personal concerns about becoming laid off remain muted in December…just 3.6% worry about being sent to the unemployment office, in line with last month (3.3%) as well as last year (3.8%).
While current plans to pay down debt (31.8%) have softened from one year ago (32.7%), rising intent to decrease overall spending (29.9%, from 28.9% in Dec-10) seems to dispel the notion that consumers will go crazy with their spending in the days leading up to Christmas. To further this point, more than one in four (27.0%) plans to increase savings in the next three months, up nearly two points from Dec-10 (25.3%). About one in five (19.7%) will pay with cash more often, lowering slightly from 365 days ago (21.1%).
While the outlooks for the economy and unemployment are a bit more positive this month – perhaps fueled by hope headed into the New Year – consumers also provide a sobering statistic regarding their personal savings in December…more than two in five (44.7%) indicate that they disagree/strongly disagree that they are saving enough to meet future needs. Just one in four (26.9%) feels that his or her financial foundation is secure.
Easing gas prices have surely come as an early gift to holiday shoppers making the rounds at brick-and-mortars this month, though seven in ten (73.0%) still say that prices at the pump continue to impact their budgets…in December, some of the most popular methods for defraying fueling expenses include: shopping closer to home (39.7%), taking fewer shopping trips (also 39.7%), shopping for sales (39.0%), using coupons (36.0%), and buying generics (32.0%)…all are trending upward from a year ago:
With the bargain hunters abound this holiday season, wouldn’t it be nice to know how shoppers are tracking sales and promotions this year? Head over to the BIG Consumer Blog for a special analysis of this data by generation.
Back at the pump, it appears that concerns for rising gas prices are keeping smart shopping strategies in vogue…nearly half (45.0%) predict that the cost of fueling up will rise by the end of the month (v. 45.9% in Nov-11). Almost as many (43.8%) believe that gas prices will remain about the same, while just one in ten (11.2%) is hopeful for decreasing prices. Drivers estimate that pump prices will average $3.54/gal by the close of 2011, slightly lower than what was anticipated for the end of November ($3.61/gal).
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With two in five (46.7%) holiday shoppers planning to buy gifts online this year, to which sites might we expect these Santas to surf? For apparel and non-apparel items, Amazon.com and Walmart.com are the first and second choices, respectively. eBay.com is also a top option for both mixes of merchandise, while JCPenney.com and Kohls.com prove popular in apparel:
With the advent of designer brands at affordable prices (cultivated by the likes of Kohl’s and Macy’s) as well as fast-fashion reaching the mass market (à la H&M and Forever 21), consumers are increasingly embracing a fashion-forward mantra…this month, 19.0% say that the newest trends and styles are important, rising from 16.6% a year ago and nearly 40% from Dec-08 (13.7%). Nearly half (47.0%), though, still place stock in value and comfort over fashion, and about a third (34.0%) prefers a traditional, conservative look.
Kohl’s (11.3%) ends the year on a high note in Women’s Clothing, ever-so-slightly leading Walmart (11.1%) as the store shopped most often in December…JC Penney (7.3%), Macy’s (7.0%), and Target (2.6%) round out the Top 5.
Over in the Men’s section, though, Walmart (14.8%) bests Kohl’s (10.8%) by a four point margin…JC Penney (9.0%) lands in third, while Macy’s (5.7%) and Target (2.9%) follow.
It’s a similar scenario in Children’s Clothing, although Walmart (13.8%) leads here with double the consumer preference share of #2 Kohl’s (6.2%). Target (5.7%), JC Penney (4.1%), and Old Navy (2.2%) complete the Top 5 here.
After settling for a tie last month, Walmart finds surer footing in Shoes in December, as the big discounter (10.6%) leads competitor Payless (9.6%) by a point…Kohl’s (5.9%), DSW (3.6%), and JC Penney (also 3.6%) follow.
While toy shopping might not be #1 on some wish lists, toy stores are certainly hot holiday destinations for Santa’s “elves”…this year, expect about one in five (21.5%) toy shoppers to head to Walmart, the store shopped most often for Children’s Toys. The big discounter is followed by Toys R Us (16.0%), Target (7.6%), Amazon.com (3.4%), and Kmart (1.2%). Price (53.8%) is the motivating factor behind choosing a Children’s Toy store to shop most often, while selection (40.6%), location (30.6%), a good selection of brands (23.4%), and quality (22.7%) are also key.
It’s also worth noting that while Walmart and Toys R Us retain the highest consumer preference share for this category, that doesn’t mean that shoppers head to these stores exclusively…in the past 90 days, 28.7% indicated that they have browsed the Toy aisles at Walmart, while one in five (20.1%) have visited that other big discounter – Target. Toys R Us (19.8%), Amazon.com (18.1%), and Kmart (10.8%) have also been popular destinations for recent Toy shoppers.
These fickle consumers seem to be keeping the Top 2 in Toyland on shaky ground…according to this month’s Consumer Migration Index (CMI), which tracks those who have immigrated to a store (new customers within the past year, “In”) against those who have emigrated (left within the past year, “Out”) and where a positive rating spells net growth to a retailer, both Walmart and Toys R Us are facing customer deficits with -4.3 and -8.8 CMI ratings, respectively:
Shoppers of one year or less cited high prices (17.5%) as the top reason to switch Toy stores…inconvenient location (10.3%), long checkout lines (6.0%), poor selection (5.5%), and lack of newest toys (4.7%) followed.
Onto the toys for the big girls and boys – Electronics, one in three (31.8%) shoppers heads to Best Buy most often, followed by Walmart (19.2%). Amazon.com (7.4%), Target (3.1%), and Sears (1.6%) complete the Top 5 for this category.
With the majority of shoppers headed to either Home Depot (28.2%) or Lowe’s (26.3%), these big boxes hammer the competition in Home Improvement/Hardware…Walmart (5.9%), Menards (3.8%), and ACE Hardware (2.5%) follow in the single digits.
Those planning the perfect holiday spread (and even a not-so-perfect one) may be headed to Walmart this season, where nearly one in five (19.1%) shop most often for Groceries…Kroger (7.2%), Publix (3.8%), Safeway (3.2%), and Shoprite (2.4%) follow.
Also headed to Walmart? Health & Beauty Care shoppers…nearly one in three (29.9%) shops the big discounter for soaps, shampoos, and such, while CVS (10.7%), Walgreens (10.0%), Target (7.0%), and Rite Aid (3.7%) round out the Top 5.
Druggists Walgreens (16.3%) and CVS (15.9%) provide the cure for Rx-medicated ailments most often…these top two shops for Prescription Drugs are followed by Walmart (11.1%), Rite Aid (4.9%), and Target (2.5%). Keep in touch in the New Year, though, to see if Walgreens’ loss of Express Scripts customers impacts their #1 status.
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It appears to be good tidings for retailers this month according to the BIGinsight™ Diffusion Index…all merchandise categories improved in December compared to Dec-10 and Dec-09, while most are looking upward from last month. Will this good cheer last into the New Year? Stay tuned…
Retail Merchandise
Categories - 90 Day Outlook
(Dec-11 compared to Nov-11, Dec-10, and Dec-09)
A more positive outlook for the economy this month may lead to a few extra-special presents under the tree…six month purchase intentions for most major categories – including autos, computers, furniture, mobile devices, TVs, and vacation travel – have improved year-over-year:
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Which tablet is on your wish list? The Apple iPad (76.3%) and Kindle Fire (69.1%) top our list of what’s hot this month…consumers also prefer fresh cut Christmas trees over artificial and are pretty anxious to see the new Sherlock Holmes installment as well as The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. What’s not…kan you say kooked? While still popular among those under 35, most would like to see the Kardashians kancelled.
Editor
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